From prediction to a science and a tool for business: The short history of Foresight
The history of future foresight has developed and remained interesting over the decades, and its scientific basis has been strongly built and reinforced. The need to understand alternative futures and developments has increased in all sectors of society. In the business world, the ability to foresee the future is becoming increasingly important in increasing competitiveness and resilience.
Future foresight provides tools and methods for planning and predicting future developments. Future foresight helps companies and other organizations prepare for future challenges and opportunities.
Foresight: Science or Practice?
Future foresight can be seen as both a science and a multidisciplinary practical activity based on the methods and theories of different disciplines. Future foresight seeks to understand possible future developments based on current knowledge and previous development. This often occurs as multidisciplinary team collaboration, and the foresight process involves several methods, such as scenario analysis, trend analysis, and weak signal identification.
Future foresight has only developed into an independent discipline in the last few decades, but it is also strongly linked to other disciplines such as economics, psychology, sociology, technology, and environmental science. Although the terminology, theories, and methods associated with foresight are relatively new, their development has been rapid and diverse, and the terminology is still not fully established and is still evolving in some places.
The business need for future foresight is clear: foresight helps organizations identify potential threats and opportunities so that they can develop strategies and models that help them overcome future challenges. In addition, understanding the future supports the identification and utilization of future opportunities, thereby helping organizations gain a competitive edge.
Many organizations have already seen the need to develop their foresight capabilities. However, the situation does not seem to meet the needs brought about by changes in the operating environment: a World Economic Forum article very well summarizes the situation: up to 75% of business leaders feel that their organization is not sufficiently prepared for surrounding change and the future. The preliminary findings of my ongoing research support this situation.
Scientific foundations emerged in the early 1900s
English mathematician Alfred North Whitehead published a book in 1933 called "Adventures of Ideas" which is believed to be the first time the term "Foresight" was used. In the 1950s, futurist and philosopher Gaston Berger founded "The Prospective School" in France. Berger linked foresight to systems thinking and emphasized the goal of influencing future developments. The most well-known foresight method, scenario planning, developed in the 1960s and 1970s alongside traditional prediction methods.
In the 1980s and 1990s, the methodology and processes of foresight were seen to have developed into professional and technology-supported practices based on continuous gathering and interpretation of information. Only from the 2000s onwards has foresight become more closely related to corporate management systems, supporting both strategy and innovation.
The challenges of accelerating change - even foresight must evolve
In recent decades, the speed of change has significantly increased in many areas of life, such as technological development, climate change, population growth, and global economic changes. The mainstream of future foresight has so far focused on long-term horizons, such as megatrends and strategic needs. Now, the acceleration of changes and the increasing intensity of their impact around us have led companies and organizations to react to changes faster and adapt to new situations much more quickly than before.
At the same time, a completely new need has emerged to examine future trends and developments on a shorter time horizon than before. My ongoing research focuses on examining the application of foresight to medium and short-term horizons, with the aim of integrating the activity into the organization's daily management. Therefore, my goal is also to develop a foresight framework and operational model tailored to this need.
You can find more perspectives and ideas for developing your organization's future readiness on the Foresight & Insight website!